"Also, consider Australia. It’s in the Southern Hemisphere, so its winter is northern hemisphere summer. But it gets its flu season during its own winter, not ours. It doesn’t follow China’s timeline, and it doesn’t follow the timeline of travelers who might be bringing in flu cases (I assume most of its inbound travelers come from the Northern Hemisphere)."
"So possibly coronavirus is still in its half-seasonal phase, and will transition to a fully seasonal disease once it’s infected everyone it can infect and picked all the low-hanging fruit in possible-variant-space so that it can’t trivially become more infectious."